Best QB Prop Bets for Week 7 Based on Our NFL Clutch Factor Power Rankings

Unlike the award handed out to the MVP, the NFL Clutch Factor power rankings are not narrative-influenced, purely based on each quarterback's on-field performances. The proof is in the pudding as Baker Mayfield is the most clutch QB entering Week 7, perched atop the rankings since last week.

Let's see which other QBs are climbing the clutch rankings. As part of the NFL predictions for Week 7, I offer a pair of featured NFL picks. 

💰 Best clutch QB prop bets for Week 7

Our NFL player prop odds tool shows the best odds for every market across legal sportsbooks in your area

⬆️ Justin Herbert Over 249.5 passing yards  (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

Justin Herbert went over this total in two of three home games and is facing an average Indianapolis Colts pass defense, ranked 15th in terms of DVOA. The Colts allowed 312 passing yards last week at home to Arizona Cardinals backup Jacoby Brissett, and they were scorched to the tune of 360 yards when they faced the Matthew Stafford-led Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. 

Herbert also hit the Over last week in Miami, finishing with 264 passing yards. Of the best sports betting sites, FanDuel offers the best odds (-114), where a winning $10 bet will profit $8.77.

⬆️ Drake Maye Under 234.5 passing yards (-115) ⭐⭐⭐

While the Patriots will probably beat the Titans, I expect New England to focus on controlling time of possession through a concerted ground effort. If they can control the tempo and get into a comfortable position entering the fourth quarter, Drake Maye won't be forced to air it out as often as usual. 

In addition, the Titans' pass defense has allowed fewer than 235 passing yards against opposing QBs in five of six games. BetMGM offers -115 odds, which will profit $8.70 on a winning $10 bet.  

🏈 NFL Clutch Factor power rankings 2025

The Clutch Factor power rankings below are graded out of 100 and are based on each quarterback's cumulative performances throughout the season. My Clutch Factor power rankings can help you stay ahead of movement in the NFL MVP odds.

Injured QBs do not get penalized for being on the treatment table and are graded based on their time on the field. However, they must play 50% of the games and a minimum of three starts to qualify. 

For last year's rankings and clutch ratings methodology, see our initial NFL clutch ratings. You can also have a look at the Week 6 Clutch Factor power rankings.

🏅 Best clutch performances

Track all of the latest NFL scores for full box scores and betting info.

🔴 Mahomes outclasses Lions at home 

Patrick Mahomes is on the rise, moving from 19th to 12th in these power rankings after outclassing the Detroit Lions at home. The two-time MVP winner also ascended the NFL MVP odds leaderboard and is the new favorite. 

He was phenomenal against the Lions, tossing three TD passes and accumulating 257 passing yards. He has 10 TDs (eight passing, two rushing) compared to one pick in the last three weeks. 

However, Mahomes is mediocre in several categories used to evaluate his Clutch Factor rating, including how he performs under pressure, his fourth-quarter rating, and his red-zone efficiency. That said, his ratings in all of those categories are showing consistent improvement.

Last season's most clutch QB is inarguably on the rise, and he will likely be among those near the top of the leaderboard soon if he continues on his current trajectory.

⚡️ Justin Herbert pulls off the great escape in Miami

Pressured more than a college student during exam week, Herbert pulled off his second game-winning drive and fourth-quarter comeback of the season in Week 6 against the Miami Dolphins.

Herbert has been pressured on 38% of his dropbacks, the seventh-most of QBs with at least 200 dropbacks. While his rating under pressure is a mediocre 13th at PFF for those with at least 200 dropbacks, Herbert often finds a way to win.  

Exhibit A was his effort in the final minute in Miami, where he provided kicker Cameron Dicker with an almost sure-thing 33-yard game-winning field goal. Thanks to his clutch performance, he jumped from 22nd to 14th in these power rankings. 

🪖 Maye the force be with Drake

Maye is among the MVP odds contenders, and he is becoming more clutch with every passing week. Maye shot up the Clutch Factor rankings, moving from 18th to 10th, thanks to leading the Patriots to their third straight victory. 

Maye became the fourth quarterback aged 23 or younger with at least 200 passing yards and a 100+ passer rating in five consecutive games. He's also the fourth-best under pressure, according to PFF. 

Maye has six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing) and no interceptions in the current three-game winning streak, and he leads the league in completion percentage on throws of 20-plus yards (71.4%). 

🗒️ More Week 6 takeaways

• Herbert, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Bryce Young, and Daniel Jones orchestrated fourth-quarter comebacks in Week 6
• Mayfield remains the most clutch QB two weeks running, and our Dustin Saracini recommends betting Mayfield for NFL MVP.
• Each of the six most clutch QBs have at least one fourth-quarter comeback win
• The four atop the Clutch Factor rankings won in Week 6
• Allen has dropped from the top spot to sixth overall in the last two weeks